WEEK 8
October 18th, 2013
By Mike Nowoswiat and Brett Ciancia
By Mike Nowoswiat and Brett Ciancia
CENTRAL FLORIDA at LOUISVILLE
Friday, Oct. 18th. 8:00. ESPN. AT Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
UCF has proven twice—defeating Penn State in Beaver Stadium and playing South Carolina to the wire—that they are a legitimate threat to Louisville in the AAC. Nobody else has proven that so far, meaning this game could essentially crown the inaugural winner of the conference. Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville would love to take the AAC Title before moving to the ACC next year (probably without Bridgewater). Both teams have shown a proclivity to playing down to lower competition and up to better competition. However, Louisville still remains relatively untested, and will continue to play “lesser teams” until they play in a bowl. I’m sure the Cardinals realize this fact, and I’d expect that they will give their best effort in this Friday night primetime affair. Bridgewater has torn up teams this year having already recorded nearly 2,000 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, but has not played particularly well against the two best teams Louisville has faced: Kentucky and Rutgers. UCF’s offense will challenge the Cardinal defense like no other opponent has this season. Blake Bortles is a great pocket passer that can also run if pressed. He tore up the South Carolina defense for 358 yards and two touchdowns, but probably squandered the game with three interceptions. Both quarterbacks have great running backs at their disposals in UCF’s Storm Johnson and Louisville’s Michael Bush. This game will be very exciting to watch with the conference championship implications and quarterback battle royale. I’ll take Teddy in this one…Louisville 35 UCF 23
FLORIDA at MISSOURI
Saturday, Oct. 19th. 12:21. ESPN3. AT Faurot Field
Missouri is for real. Last week, I predicted that Missouri would lose to Georgia, but would win if the game were played in Columbia. I underestimated the Tigers, who are now a top-15 team and rightfully so. However, they are without star QB James Franklin for a few weeks as he was knocked out in the second half of the Georgia game. Maty Mauk will take the reins this week against one of the nation’s best defenses, albeit without their star Dominique Easley who tore his ACL and is out for the season. Still, the Gator secondary is arguably the best group in the nation and should be able to handle an improved Missouri receiving corp after shutting down the dynamic LSU unit last week. WR L’Damian Washington has been on a tear recently averaging about 100 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games against Vanderbilt and Georgia. But he will most likely be matched up against Marcus Roberson, a tall shutdown corner that could offset the skillset that Washington brings to the table. The Gator front seven is still a very good unit that will be able to get pressure on Mauk and make his life difficult. On the other side of the ball, Gator QB Tyler Murphy has played well in the absence of Jeff Driskel. There has been little drop off between the two players, albeit Driskel was one of the worse starters in the SEC. Murphy struggled in the LSU game, but has played admirably in the rest of his games, all resulting in wins. Most importantly, he has only thrown one interception in five games played. If he can continue to take care of the ball, the Florida defense will be able to shut down Mauk and win this game…Florida 23 Missouri 16
UCLA at STANFORD
Saturday, Oct. 19th. 3:30. ABC. AT Stanford Stadium
Wait, Stanford lost last week?...to UTAH? UCLA should dominate then, right? NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! That same Utah squad actually took UCLA to the wire; the Bruins needed a last-second, goal-line interception to fend off the Utes. There is no ignoring how elite the UCLA offense has been so far under QB Brett Hundley, averaging 45 points per game. But it will be strength vs. strength when UCLA has the ball, as the Stanford defense is equally stout. On paper, the Cardinal defense was supposed be in the top 3 nationally, but has had more issues than anticipated. QB Kevin Hogan WAS undefeated as the starter, until Utah ended his run. UCLA's September victory over Nebraska was very impressive, but that was aided by very strong emotion following the tradgedy. As we saw last season, several times Jim Mora Jr. failed to motivate his Bruins squad to play to their full potential. I think with their newly-acquired top 10 rank, UCLA is a little complacent. Meanwhile, Stanford is hungry and angry following the upset loss. Stanford beat them twice last year in back-to-back weeks...look for a third victory over UCLA. Stanford 31 UCLA 27
WASHINGTON at ARIZONA STATE
Saturday, Oct. 19th. 6:00. Pac-12 Network. AT Sun Devil Stadium
Washington and Arizona State are some of the better 2-loss teams in the nation, both with explosive offenses but grueling early-season schedules. Washington comes limping into this one after the deflating blowout loss to Oregon after hosting College Gameday for the first time in school history. Arizona State was humbled by Stanford and has since lost a close one vs. Notre Dame. Both teams have some easier opponents following this matchup, and there is a huge difference between 5-2 and 4-3. QB Taylor Kelly has been extremely valuable in Todd Graham's offense, distributing the ball to playmakers WR Jaelen Strong, RB D.J. Foster, and the reliable TE Chris Coyle. After pounding Colorado 54-13, the Sun Devils are in a better mental state than UW, fresh off of tough losses to the conference's top 2 teams. Now facing what another top squad, Washington has little margin for error. Look for a few early ASU scores / UW mistakes to take all of the wind out of UW's sails. Look for DT Will Sutton & Co. to close some running lanes for RB Bishop Sankey. Could be another Pac-12 shootout if Keith Price can keep up the aerial assault... Arizona State 38 Washington 34
USC at NOTRE DAME
Saturday, Oct. 19th. 7:30. NBC. AT Notre Dame Stadium
We should just stay away from Notre Dame game picks for awhile, as we are just 1-3 this season predicting their matchups. We view their defense very highly, and think Rees is a capable game-manager. We thought they could take out Michigan and Oklahoma, but would fall to the red-hot Sun Devils. 3 strikes and you're out. But here, (again) we are taking the Irish. Following its blowout loss to Arizona State, USC fired the perennial under-perfomer Lane Kiffin, and moved Ed Orgeron to the interim position. The team came into the Colussiem after a bye week and played inspired football, holding off the Arizona Wildcat comeback attempt. Look for QB Cody Kessler to have much more trouble against the Irish defense, and return to his sub-par early season form. The running lanes will be closed down by a stout defensive line anchored by Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III. Kessler will make a few errors, Notre Dame will gain an early lead, and all the Trojan's temporary revived energy will be lost. Look for Notre Dame to defend Touchdown Jesus, and move to 5-2... Notre Dame 27 USC 20
FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON
Saturday, Oct. 19th. 8:00. ABC. AT Memorial Stadium
The ACC’s version of the “Game of the Century.” Famous Jameis Winston vs. Tajh Boyd. Florida State has always had the talent, but could not seem to put together an elite offense with first round picks Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel under center. Now, the Seminoles have seemingly found their playmaker, but everybody is waiting to crown him until he plays Saturday. Confidence is not a problem for Winston, which is why I don’t see the Clemson crowd rattling him too much, but the Clemson defense has the potential to slow down his Heisman-worthy start to the season. DE Vic Beasley has stepped up this season as he moved into the starting role and has already recorded 9 sacks. However, Winston isn't the only reason that the FSU offense has taken a step forward this season. The offensive line is improved and has only allowed 9 sacks this season, which is remarkable considering how often Winston drops back to pass. However, the typical Florida State pass rush is not quite as good as it has been. No defensive lineman has more than one sack and it could be argued that DT Timmy Jernigan is the best pass rusher on the line. The interior line is very deep and skilled, and the linebackers—Christian Jones, Telvin Smith, and Terrance Smith—have primo talent and cohesiveness. And finally, the secondary, led by Lamarcus Joyner, have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 150 yards per game. In essence, this defense is dominant without any glaring weaknesses. The Clemson offensive attack includes perhaps the best QB in the country and perhaps the best WR in the country. Boyd and Sammy Watkins flexed their muscles against Georgia as Boyd threw for 270 yards and five total touchdowns while Watkins caught six passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. Clemson’s offense lives and dies by these two players, especially after the loss of WR Charone Peake. This should be a high-scoring affair. Can Boyd out-duel the freshman sensation to win his third straight primetime game (LSU and Georgia)? Florida State’s defense holds Boyd to a reasonable amount and Famous Jameis takes control of the Heisman race…Florida State 45 Clemson 35